A few years back, the New York Yankees made a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, parting ways with the struggling Joey Gallo, who was seeking more playing time elsewhere. It was a move that seemed inevitable, as the left-handed-hitting outfielder failed to make a significant impact on the Yankees’ offense. Heading into the 2022 season, Gallo had been projected for impressive numbers, with ZIPS forecasting a median outcome of a 131 OPS+ and 3.7 WAR. However, he fell well short of these expectations during his time with the Yankees.
In exchange for Gallo, who struggled with a 91 wRC+ and a .277 OBP with the Dodgers, the Yankees acquired Clayton Beeter to strengthen their Minor League pitching depth. Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ general manager, may have made a savvy move, as Beeter has shown brilliance in Triple-A this season.
Clayton Beeter Could Be a Massive Steal For the Yankees
Last season marked Clayton Beeter’s transition from Double-A to Triple-A, where he operated as a full-time starting pitcher for the first time. When the Yankees acquired him from the Dodgers, Beeter had primarily served as an opener, with Somerset gradually increasing his workload to handle 4-5 inning stints by the postseason. It was evident that transitioning him into a consistent starting role would pose challenges, particularly due to his command issues and reliance on only two dependable pitches.
Upon his promotion to Triple-A, many of these challenges became apparent, as Beeter struggled with a high walk rate of 13.9% and yielded a 1.90 HR/9 rate in his 15 appearances, resulting in a 4.94 ERA and 5.17 xFIP. Although the average ERA in the International League was over 5.00, Beeter’s performance was not as dismal as the numbers might suggest. Nevertheless, his command struggles highlighted the necessity for improvement if he aimed to establish himself as a dependable starter, emphasizing the importance of refining his fastball-slider combination.
One notable improvement in Beeter’s pitching profile for the 2024 season is the increased vertical movement on his fastball, rising from an average of about 16.7 inches of Induced Vertical Break to 18.4 inches. This enhanced vertical carry on his fastball allows him to effectively set up his slider, which breaks downward in the zone to induce swings and misses. Moreover, the increased vertical movement on his four-seam fastball makes it more challenging for hitters to make solid contact, particularly in the upper part of the strike zone. Consequently, opposing batters have struggled to generate significant offense against a pitch that previously posed a significant threat, as Beeter has yet to allow a barrel on his four-seamer. Just last year, his four-seamer was barreled 13.2% of the time, often resulting in damaging contact early in counts.
Another subtle yet significant change to Clayton Beeter’s fastball is the decrease in horizontal break, which has actually enhanced its effectiveness. His four-seamer now falls into the category of a cut-ride fastball, characterized by having 16 or more inches of Induced Vertical Break (IVB) with less than 3 inches of arm-side run. This type of pitch typically gives the illusion of rising due to its high carry, but the “cut” component refers to the horizontal movement perceived by hitters. Batters often read Beeter’s fastball as moving towards his glove side, creating cutting action.
This deceptive movement has led hitters to misjudge Beeter’s fastball, resulting in an impressive 25.5% Whiff Rate and zero barrels allowed through five starts. Notably, his fastball effectively sets up his elite slider, which many consider one of the best pitches in baseball. Beeter’s slider boasts numerous unique and formidable characteristics, including a steep Vertical Approach Angle of -9.1, placing it in the 94th percentile for sharpness. As a result, Beeter’s slider generates a high number of swings and misses, along with inducing groundballs, making it a formidable weapon on the mound.
The combination of steep vertical movement on Clayton Beeter’s fastball and slider creates a challenging tunnel for hitters to navigate. These two pitches complement each other seamlessly. Firstly, the minimal horizontal movement on both pitches makes it difficult for hitters to differentiate between them. Secondly, the spin axis of the fastball and slider align closely, with both spinning around the 6:00 mark on the clock analogy. This mirroring effect confuses hitters, contributing to a high 32% Chase Rate through Beeter’s initial five starts.
In 2023, Beeter struggled to induce swings outside the zone due to control issues, but adjustments to tighten the spin profiles and enhance the fastball’s carry have made a significant impact. Despite pitching in an environment where the average ERA exceeds 5.00, Beeter boasts an impressive 2.74 ERA and 2.33 FIP. While walks remain a concern at 13.2%, his strikeout rate surpasses 36%, and he hasn’t surrendered a home run all season.
Though questions linger about his viability as a starter, Beeter’s recent performances suggest progress toward establishing himself in the rotation. However, his long-term future may still lean towards a bullpen role, where his dominant repertoire could thrive. Incorporating more changeups against left-handed hitters has shown promise, potentially expanding his arsenal. While challenges may arise during subsequent trips through the lineup, Beeter’s potential as a reliable bullpen weapon for the Yankees is undeniable.
Drawing parallels to Jhony Brito’s development path seems logical, given Beeter’s dominance in Triple-A. If the Yankees integrate him into their pitching staff, he could significantly bolster their performance on the mound.