The 2024 SEC football season is shaping up to be a historic one, with powerhouse teams vying for spots in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. While much of the attention is on perennial giants like Georgia and Alabama, the Florida Gators could emerge as the ultimate wild card in college football’s most competitive conference.
Florida enters the season with modest expectations, reflected in their preseason over/under of just 4.5 wins. However, their impact on the SEC could far exceed their projected record. The Gators face what many consider the toughest schedule in the country, including games against Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss, as well as non-conference battles with Miami, Florida State, and UCF.
This brutal lineup gives Florida numerous opportunities to upset the playoff hopes of their conference rivals. As head coach Billy Napier enters his pivotal third year, the Gators are in desperate need of statement wins. Just one upset could significantly alter the playoff landscape, potentially knocking a contender out of the CFP race.
The key to Florida’s potential for chaos lies with senior quarterback Graham Mertz. After a career-best season with 2,903 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and only three interceptions, Mertz is poised for an even stronger 2024 campaign.
“I came back to win,” Mertz declared with determination. “That’s why I’m here, that’s why I’m out there in the heat for hours – because I want to win.”
For Florida to disrupt the SEC hierarchy, they’ll need to improve their explosive play capability. Last season, the Gators ranked just 56th nationally in 20-plus-yard plays, a statistic that Napier and his staff have focused on during the offseason. With a more experienced offensive line and an influx of talented receivers, Florida appears ready to stretch the field more effectively in 2024.
While Florida might be the most intriguing disruptor, they aren’t the only team capable of shaking up the SEC. Tennessee, led by sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava, is ranked 15th and could make a surprise push for the CFP. The Volunteers face a relatively favorable schedule, aside from matchups with Oklahoma, Alabama, and Georgia.
Texas A&M, now under head coach Mike Elko, is another team to watch. The 19th-ranked Aggies avoid both Alabama and Georgia on their schedule, setting the stage for a potential 10-win season if quarterback Conner Weigman stays healthy and builds on his promising performances.
As the season progresses, attention will be on how these potential disruptors navigate their tough schedules. For Florida, the final five-game stretch against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State will be crucial. According to research by Andrew Weatherman, Florida will be just the eighth team since 2000 to face five or more consecutive games against preseason-ranked opponents. No team has finished with a winning record in such a stretch during that time.
If Florida can defy expectations and come out of this stretch with a winning record, they could unexpectedly compete for a playoff spot. Even a 3-2 record in these final games could push the Gators to a 9-3 overall mark, which might be enough to sneak into the expanded 12-team playoff given the strength of their schedule.
While it may seem early to consider playoff possibilities for a team coming off a 5-7 season, the expanded format and Florida’s grueling schedule create a unique opportunity. A few well-timed upsets could not only rejuvenate Napier’s tenure but also upend the entire SEC and the national championship picture.